The war in the Gulf leaves the West divided, demoralised and distracted.
Never interrupt your adversary when he is making a mistake. Napoleon’s advice from 1805 is tailor-made for Vladimir Putin, three weeks into Donald Trump’s war on Iran. Russia may be on the sidelines of this war, militarily and diplomatically, but for now that suits the Kremlin just fine.
True, not all developments are positive. Ukraine—told so rudely by the US president only a year ago that it had “no cards”—turns out to have coveted expertise in counter-drone technology. Russian-made air defence systems in Iran have failed: the strategy behind Israeli and US strikes may be questionable, but the technology is excellent. Having lost Venezuela and Syria, and with Cuba trembling, Russia is now seeing another friend in the line of fire. It is still possible, though improbable, that the regime in Tehran will crack and the attack will be vindicated.
More likely though is that the US is again bogged down in the kind of “forever war” that Trump and his base loathe, or that it has to settle for a humiliating withdrawal from the regional wreckage. Either outcome works well for the Kremlin.
Already, soaring oil prices are a lifeline for Russia’s creaking war economy, just as the Kremlin was preparing to implement 10% budget cuts in public services and infrastructure spending. The costs of other commodities that Russia exports, such as ammonia and aluminium, are rising too. The temporary sanctions relief offered by the US is a practical gain for Russia, and a precedent-setting symbolic one. If the war drags on, energy-greedy European countries will also start feeling tempted by Russian oil and gas.
On the military side, Russia is chuckling. The billions of dollars-worth of hard-to-replace precision munitions the US used in the inconclusive opening weeks of the war come from the same stockpiles that are needed to deter Russia or China. (They are also what allies should have given to Ukraine). Weak-willedness has long undermined Western credibility. Now emptying warehouses and constipated production lines mean that even if decision-makers did want to reinforce Europe, or Taiwan, they would struggle to do so. For Russia and China, that tips the military calculus towards aggression.
Next is the diplomatic benefit. The US is not punishing Russia for its past or present help to Iran. Indeed, reports suggest that Trump is sounding out the Kremlin’s willingness to broker a deal with the Tehran regime.
Moreover, the bungled war, and the incoherent braggadocio surrounding it, make Russia and China look lucid and responsible, while casting a harsh light on the West’s headline-hungry, short-term decision-making. Did President Trump really not think through the consequences of his attack on allies and markets? Were none of his top team, especially the senior military, willing or able to do their jobs? This mess makes the architects of the Iraq war seem like Themistocles teaming up with Eisenhower.
The damage ripples elsewhere. Britain, supposedly the savviest and most capable US ally in Europe, looked clueless and ill-prepared. The European Union’s divisions were painfully displayed, while the stuttering European economy has taken another knock. Who would now bet on Europe’s ability to manage the military spending and collective decision-making necessary to fill the defence gap if the Americans pull out?
Europe’s serious countries (an alarmingly small sub-set of the total) must now try to preserve their own security amid this mess. They include rich countries who can pay for what is needed, and others with great expertise in cohesion, vigilance and readiness, as well as battle-hardened, bleeding Ukraine. What they lack is time: squandered so recklessly for so long—and now so sorely needed.
Edward Lucas
Photo credit: Anastasios Antoniadis on Unsplash