[This article was first published by CEPA]
Those promises of support sounded sincere but were actually empty.
From: the EU, NATO, Western Governments
To: Ukrainians and their leaders
Date: Summer 2021.
Dear Ukrainians,
We are so pleased that you were able to withstand the initial full-scale invasion from Russia. We are now excited by your heroism and want to be your friends. It makes us feel brave, glamorous and important. We will come to Kyiv for photo-ops — one in the street with a flak jacket, one in a bomb shelter, please — and we will pledge economic, diplomatic and military support. But please, treat us like children not adults.
The first problem is that we can only think about one thing at a time, and even that fairly briefly. Sooner or later we will be bored by you, and distracted by other things, likely the Middle East, but also China. The domestic calendar grabs our brainspace too. Elections demand a domestic focus. Also Christmas. That’s a time for good news, not bad. Expect to exhaust our attention span.
Please also remember that our appetites for narrative are based on Hollywood, not history. We like to back winners. We will talk up your chances of victory because that makes the war easier to sell to our voters. Unfortunately that will also make it harder to explain setbacks. And nobody likes a loser. Please therefore keep an eye on the plot and deliver a happy ending promptly. We will lose heart long before you do, and then we will blame you for not winning quickly enough.
We cannot help you nearly as much as we say. We will send you lots of equipment early on. Much of it will break because we won’t provide the spare parts in time, or at all. Much of it will be incompatible with other systems you are using. If you make specific requests, we will tell you not to be too demanding. If you complain, we will say you are being difficult. If you wear out the equipment in battle, we will grumble that you are not properly trained. If you shoot a lot of shells at the Russians, we will say that future shortages are your fault.
Our economies are, combined, thirty times bigger than Russia. But we will not break a sweat to help you win. We will stick rigidly to peacetime rules, on everything from munitions production to logistics. We will also impose easily-evaded sanctions on Russia that give us a few high-profile scalps, but do not seriously hurt anyone (except of course you, as the victim of the Kremlin’s war machine).
We will put our domestic agendas ahead of your security. In the United States, Republicans in Congress will worry more about scoring points over the Biden Administration than in voting for the money and weapons that you need. Germany, having promised a game-changing Zeitenwende will indeed deliver one, but on the negative side: a fiscal and political crisis that leaves Europe’s economic giant crippled and irrelevant. In short: we will do everything to help you so long as it comes at no serious political, economic or mental cost.
We will apply a harsh double standard to you. Any shortcomings regarding corruption, media freedom or institutional weaknesses will prompt knowing remarks. But don’t criticise us, for anything. It’s ungrateful.
We will of course claim credit for your victories. But your defeats are your fault.
Good luck and let us know when you are next in Berlin, Brussels, London or Washington. It will be great to catch up.
Best regards,
The West.
PS Please accept our deepest condolences on your current and future losses. Our thoughts and prayers are with you.
Photo Credit: Max Kukurudziak on Unsplash