“There is a sense of urgency, but no sense of action”.
What next? That was the main point of discussion together with the need for Ukraine’s Western partners to reset strategy. Two years since Russia invaded Ukraine phase one of the war is over with both sides struggling to revise war aims. Putin has placed Russia on a war footing and will only ‘negotiate’ now over the scope of Ukraine’s capitulation. There are elections in both Europe and the US. Therefore, 2024 should be seen as a year in which Ukraine is supported to stay in the fight albeit on the strategic defensive. The $61bn aid package currently stalled in Congress is a vital component in Ukraine achieving this aim.
During 2024 Europeans must move quickly to ramp up armaments production, particularly 155 mm artillery shells, so that in 2025 Ukraine is restored to a stronger and sustainable position. Ukraine has suffered several battlefield reverses but has also effectively expelled the Russian Black Seas Fleet. There is little evidence that any Russian spring offensive would make a decisive breakthrough that could see Moscow’s forces gain more than the 18% of Ukraine they already occupy. Without air superiority the chance of either side ‘winning’ the war is unlikely.
The mood at the Munich Security Conference was pessimistic with the US delegation noticeably downbeat about American support for Ukraine. There are also concerns about the stability of the Zelensky regime in Kyiv and divisions within the West which Putin is trying to exploit by giving the impression Russia is stronger than it is. At present, only 1 in 5 Europeans believe the Ukrainians have any chance of winning the war. If Western leaders want Ukraine to stay in the fight, they also need to improve strategic communications with their respective publics as to why continued support for Kyiv is important and what success might look like.
Russia is being changed fundamentally by this war and Western democracies need to understand that. The probable murder of Alexei Navalny is another sign that the Putin regime is now on a collision course with Western democracies. The West for its part cannot assume that because its values have been outraged by Putin’s invasion of Ukraine much of the Global South shares such moral anger with much of it regarding the West as hypocrites. If such support is important a much more concerted and effective diplomatic action is needed to that end.
The critical factor now is time. Russia has expended an immense effort for minimal gain with some 350,000 Russian personnel killed or wounded since February 2022. Europeans must use that time to build up their respective defence and technological industrial bases, as well as their forces and their resources. This is not just so Ukraine can resist, but to ensure deterrence remains credible in all circumstances going forward.
The war will be ended through negotiations and probably by geopolitical and geo-economic factors that have little to do with the battlefield. Therefore, the strategic aim of the West should be to end the war as quickly as possible with an equitable settlement for Ukraine. Experience suggests that such negotiations with Moscow should only take place at a time of relative Ukrainian and Western strength.
Written by Julian Lindsey-French
Photo Credit: The attached photo belongs to NATO and is used under NATO’s newsroom content policy.