“There are no cheap energy sources to replace the current energy mix for the foreseeable future”.
Not as strong as it should be, but far better than feared in the immediate aftermath of the price and supply shock caused by Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Growing interdependence and interconnectivity will be vital for enhanced efficiency but also make Europeans increasingly vulnerable to energy systems shock. There is political consensus that a marked shift to renewable sources of energy is needed, but there is also a marked lack of political will to act for fear short term cost hikes will also see increased public resistance to Net Zero policies. Consequently, Europeans face the danger of a systemic energy gap.
Relative strengths
The sustained affordable price of oil and gas has been driven mainly by US shale oil and gas production, LNG supplies particularly from North America, and the steady shift towards the use of renewable energy. Norway is also providing 35% of EU oil demand and 30% gas, whilst the US is now the world’s largest exporter of gas and LNG. The shock to the European economy has been managed by an EU commitment of €700 billion to subsidise consumers which has enabled Europeans to out-buy the Asian market.
In 2022, the EU also sourced 40% of its energy needs from renewables, 40% from fossil fuels, and 20% from nuclear power. As carbon capture and battery technology improves Europe’s energy efficiency will also improve steadily, but only if a secure and consequent supply of rare earth metals can be found. This will be vital given the increased demand caused by “neural systems”.
Relative vulnerabilities
Potentially critical if not catastrophic vulnerabilities also remain, particularly infrastructure. Secure energy storage remains inadequate, and pipelines and cables remain particularly vulnerable. There are several critical nodes which reduce the redundancy vital to any secure and robust network. Planning regimes also exacerbate vulnerabilities with resistance to onshore wind farms driving the growth of large offshore farms which are inherently vulnerable. Europe also suffers from extensive energy wastage. The “great electrification” is unlikely to happen due to a lack of expertise and technology, and the impact on relative strategic competitiveness of states that adopt such policies in an age of strategic competitiveness. Exotic ‘solutions’, such as nuclear fusion, still remain many years away.
Options
Major trading companies must invest more of their immense profits in robust and redundant energy infrastructure and European consumers must become more energy disciplined. Technology must also be better exploited to create a future energy mix with increased use of renewable energy, most notably solar power, with small possibly even mobile nuclear reactors being exploited in harness with much enhanced storage capacity.
Julian Lindley-French
Photo Credit: Maria Lupan on Unsplash