A Companion to the Belfer Center Task Force Report on a New Transatlantic Bargain
Overview
Today the need for stronger and more self-reliant European security is more urgent than ever. This report examines the state of transatlantic security in an era of persistent conflict, marked by large-scale Russian aggression in Europe, the rise of China, and continued instability and violent conflict in the Middle East. Though still a vital U.S. interest, Europe is no longer America’s first national security priority. With a population and collective economy far larger than Russia’s, as well as growing defense budgets, an impressive defense industrial base, advanced technology, and an overall force structure significantly larger than that wielded by Moscow, Europe can and should assume greater responsibility for its own defense. A stable and secure transatlantic community, as well as continued US support, depend on it. However, readiness and interoperability shortfalls, capability gaps, and differing threat perceptions must be addressed. Above all, allies must find the political will to generate and sustain effective deterrence and defense, with the United States in an important but supporting role. The transatlantic security environment has changed dramatically in recent years, with collective security and the territorial defense of Europe returning as the most urgent priority following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. At the same time, U.S. domestic support for the NATO Alliance has eroded, fueled by perceptions that Europe is not doing enough to provide for its own security. While American economic prosperity and national security remain dependent on a stable and peaceful transatlantic region, the United States faces multiple global challenges and competing demands. Accordingly, European security must be strengthened if the Alliance is to survive and prosper. As the largest war since 1945 rages on its doorstep, NATO’s ability to deter Russian aggression is depends more than ever on capable and resilient allies. On both sides of the Atlantic, new leaders are coming forward to face these threats. They face both challenges and opportunities. Perhaps none is more important than a new security relationship grounded in a stronger Europe.
There are of course competing demands and challenges. Coordinating defense and security policy across dozens of European polities, with different histories, interests and strategic cultures, is at best challenging. Despite collective defense obligations enshrined in the Washington and Maastricht Treaties, states that feel geographically removed and less threatened will be inclined to contribute less. Others, such as emerging democracies with weaker economies and more fragile governance, may welcome NATO and EU security guarantees without committing to the investment required to be security providers and not just consumers. A long and destructive European history of conflict lowers the propensity for military service and support for defense investment and preparedness. Extensive social safety nets and high domestic spending, as well as rising debt levels, push against defense spending across Europe. In some cases, long histories of neutrality, or proximity to (and in some cases occupation by) Russia prevent more active contributions. The rise of far right or nationalist parties, coupled with increasingly autocratic states inside Europe, can obstruct consensus-building and a shared view of the threat. Economic competition, tension between national and supranational perspectives, resource disparities, and differing approaches to immigration can obstruct bilateral relations inside Europe.
Transatlantic security is therefore a mosaic, marked by context and nuance, that can complicate concerted and uniform action. Nevertheless, the need is compelling. With major theater war on its borders and political change in Washington, Europe can no longer be complacent in assuming the United States will fill all security and capability gaps. Those days are gone and will not return. With global interests and responsibilities, the United States must see Europe as an important but clearly secondary priority. Europe can and must do much more in its own defense, both to preserve the peace and to ensure continued U.S. engagement and support. The resources are there. To prevail and prosper, Europe must generate the collective determination and resolve to lead in its own defense.
To continue reading, please download the full report…
Photo Credit: The attached photo belongs to NATO and is used under NATO’s newsroom content policy.