“Europeans must re-learn the language of power”.
Core messages.
The inability of Allies to influence President Trump is as much a consequence of European diplomatic and military weakness as it is the capricious nature of this White House. “Mixed messaging and keeping adversaries and allies alike off-balance is the essence of Trumpism” and Trump’s actions reveal a president who also believes that might is right and Europeans who have for too long fostered the false belief that in international relations law and institutions are an alternative to power. However, such assertiveness is unlikely to endure going forward mainly due to the growing American need for capable allies, which Europeans must finally and fully exploit.
The danger is that whilst the US can carry out spectacular military actions it has no governance plan for Venezuela and could face a repeat of the Iraq and Afghanistan imbroglios. Trump also has legitimate security concerns over Greenland because of Chinese and Russian presence in the region and because it sits under the missile track from Russia to the United States.
The debate
Against the backdrop of Trump’s “drive by shooting in Caracas” and the rendition of Venezuelan President Maduro to the US, as well as threats to use force to seize Greenland, the TAG debate addressed three questions. What does Trump want? How will adversaries respond? How should Allies respond?
What Trump wants is to control the Western Hemisphere and in particular its hydrocarbons and critical metals and minerals. His actions are also the “politics of distraction” in an election year when both the Senate and House of Representatives will be contested. Trump wants to wrap himself in the American flag to appeal to the 35% of Americans who believe he was right to seize Maduro. The Administration also believes that 2026 is another unipolar moment, at least in the Western Hemisphere and the Euro-Atlantic Area reinforced by an “ideological component” to policy by lending support to right-wing movements.
Trump is sending mixed messages to adversaries, such as China and Russia, but also Iran, North Korea, and Cuba. By embracing power politics and spheres of influence Trump is indicating that so long as the American/Trumpian interest is not threatened they may act with the kind of impunity Trump is showing. This has potentially profound implications for the futures of both Taiwan and Ukraine. The analytical and diplomatic challenge for America’s adversaries will be to properly understand the scope and extent of the American interest. The danger for Europeans is that Putin will believe he is the “net winner” of such actions irrespective of how many shadow fleet tankers the Americans seize.
European leaders must finally and properly embrace might and rebuild their respective armed forces. No more defence pretence. That means they at least fulfil the commitment to spend 5% GDP on their armed forces together with the enabling infrastructures and no later than 2030. By properly demonstrating a commitment to better sharing Alliance burdens they will also reinforce in the American mind the value of Allies. Enhanced European military capability means greater European influence in and over the Alliance. In any case, Trump will doubtless realise his goals in Greenland without the use of force because not only do the 1917 and 1951 US-Denmark treaties give the Americans a wide scope of action but Europeans are in the process of “pre-emptive surrender”. Should the Americans invade Greenland they will do nothing.
Recommended Courses of Action
1. NATO Allies should directly address Trump’s security concerns about Greenland by developing a Pan-Arctic Strategy and implementing it with a military presence and enhanced military diplomacy.
2. Denmark should send a Danish Friendship Mission to Greenland to demonstrate Copenhagen’s commitment to the island.
3. NATO Secretary-General Rutte should offer his services as an interlocutor between the US and Denmark over Greenland exploiting his excellent personal rapport with President Trump.
4. NATO nations should call in all US ambassadors to explain American actions and intent.
5. Continue high-level but discreet discussions between the US and its Allies in NATO. “This will constrain the White House”.
6. Europeans should also seek clarification of America’s intentions in Venezuela because there are clear implications for the flow of both migrants and narcotics to both Europe and dependent territories.
7. Open dialogue between the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, national parliamentarians and Senators and Representatives.
8. European leaders should also seize the opportunity to explain to their respective publics the need for increased and accelerated defence investment.
9. The EU and Denmark must seek to pre-empt Trump’s demands in Greenland by offering a solution.
Dr. Julian Lindley-French
