“Don’t call the US in the short-term, but don’t count us out in the longer-term.”
Allies and Partners must distinguish between the short and longer terms in dealing with the US. For the next three years the transatlantic security relationship will be in crisis during which time Canadians and Europeans must move collectively and decisively to build up their military capabilities. The power imbalance in the Transatlantic Relationship is one cause of the Greenland crisis and must be addressed in the hope that Post-Trump the US will become again a more logical and reliable Ally.
Four framing (or should that be ‘framework’) questions were addressed. What does Trump’s demarche over Greenland say about American reliability and its willingness to intervene when Allies are threatened? How does Trump’s threatening behaviour towards a long-term European ally, Denmark, impact NATO? How should European Allies respond? What is the future of the Transatlantic Relationship?
What does Trump’s demarche over Greenland say about American reliability and its willingness to intervene when allies are threatened? Allies and Partners of the US must first understand the political trouble Trump is in ahead of the November midterm elections. Such blatant nationalism is an attempt to consolidate his MAGA political base and attract Right-leaning independent voters. The danger is that America will drift further into much deeper nationalism driven by a growing frustration with the cost Americans perceive the rules-based order imposes on them. It is vital European parliamentarians speak to Members of Congress about the value of alliance to Americans.
How does his threatening behaviour to a long-term European ally, Denmark, impact NATO? Can US nuclear deterrence, the foundational defence of the Alliance, now be relied upon by Allies? British and French nuclear capabilities are inadequate should Putin or his successor believe the US nuclear deterrent no longer ‘guarantees’ the Alliance. NATO planners must consider two options: “NATO continues or NATO becomes the security arm of the EU”. Europe remains divided and “still in a Catch 22 with still too much business as usual”. Meloni in Italy is an example of one Ally simply trying to “keep its head down”. Consequently, if Europeans fail to step up to the challenge and begin to scale their future forces to meet a possible loss of US capabilities and the Russian threat they could face a catastrophic choice between accepting defeat in a European war or using strategic nuclear weapons early.
How should European Allies respond? Davos might be the moment when both Canadians and Europeans say to Trump “enough is enough!” Canadian Prime Minister Carney was right to say, “we must not be bullied”. For example, Sweden, “a most like-minded” US ally, has responded to the crisis by calling for a much stronger Europe. Only by building a new strategic European coalition of the willing as a “European pillar within NATO” will Europeans be able to deter Russia and exert influence on the US – the twin functions of alliance. Politically, Europeans must challenge Trump’s acceptance of the Xi-Putin belief in 21stc century spheres of influence by the EU passing the Mercosur partnership with four leading Latin American states.
What is the future of the Transatlantic Relationship? The outcome of Russia’s war on Ukraine will be vital. For example, Europeans must be able to better share burdens by fielding a force that could do far more than the wholly inadequate “Reassurance Force”. “This crisis might be a watershed moment in Europe, but it is not a watershed moment in the US”. Such frustration begs one last question: in this 250th anniversary year of the founding of the United States is it now undergoing the Second American Revolution? European diplomacy over the short and longer-term? Short term the emphasis should be on “Nice doggy whilst looking for a bigger stick”. Over the longer term, European leaders must “prepare their [respective] peoples for the end of the Old World Order”, and learn to “speak the language of power”.
Dr. Julian Lindley-French
Photo credit: Evangeline Shaw on Unsplash