“An Alliance-wide approach to the Arctic is now needed”.
Sitrep
What does Russia seek in the Arctic? “Russia is developing a 360-degree Arctic capability” focussed on three areas: controlling the Northern Sea Route, projecting power into the North Atlantic, and extracting minerals and hydrocarbons. The military-strategic objective of Russia’s Northern Fleet is to isolate Europe from North America in the event of war and once beyond the Greenland-Iceland-UK (GIUK) gap Allied forces effectively lose Russian submarines. For NATO the accession of Finland and Sweden has greatly increased the importance of the Arctic to deterrence and defence of the wider Euro-Atlantic Area but also expanded its contested Area of Responsibility.
Russian (and Chinese) strategic aims in the Arctic
Northern Sea Route: with the Arctic ice in retreat both Beijing and Moscow believe that a new sea passage across the top of Russia will shorten the transit of commercial shipping from Asia to Europe by some 3000km. Russia, with the support of China, is establishing new ports and military air and sea bases along the NSR to control and exploit shipping for commercial gain.
Power projection and Bastion protection: Russia is deploying a new generation of super-quiet nuclear and diesel powered submarines designed to break out into the North Atlantic to prevent US and Canadian reinforcement of Europe in the event of war. Russia is also applying lessons-learned from its war on Ukraine to develop Arctic-capable autonomous systems capable of medium and long-range fires. Russia is also monitoring and destroying undersea pipelines and cables, and developing mine warfare to disrupt sea lines of communication (SLOC). Russia is strengthening the protection of so-called Nuclear Bastions in the Barents Sea and beyond from which submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) could be fired in war thus directly threatening Continental North America.
Extraction: China has also adopted the Polar Silk Road to exploit Arctic resources and is deploying deep ice “military-lite” nuclear powered ice-breakers to help convoy shipping. Both China and Russia are keen to extract Arctic resources, including Greenland.
Courses of action:
The dilemma faced by the EU and NATO is that the imbalance in capabilities is now so great that it is difficult to know what should be done and by whom. Better integration of existing Alliance efforts and assets would be a good start. That is the mission of NATO’s new Arctic Sentry and Atlantic Bastion strategies which will enable a better understanding of Russian and Chinese activities in the Arctic. “Exquisite technologies” could better observe, threaten and penetrate Russia’s Nuclear Bastions. Hitherto, the Arctic Allies have resisted the involvement of the wider Alliance in what Norwegians call the High North which is changing because the Arctic and the North Atlantic are now a contiguous critical strategic space.
Arctic Sentry is the first step on the road to a new Alliance Arctic Strategy to generate “cost-effective solutions for integrated effect”. The Alliance is improving surveillance with the deployment of the Multi-static Anti-Submarine Barrier in the North Atlantic and the development of a shared operational picture. A silver-lining of the Greenland imbroglio is that it has brought the strategic importance of the Arctic into a much clearer focus and led Allies such as Canada to shift their efforts from soft power in the region to more hard power.
As ever, much will depend on the political will on both sides of the Atlantic to meet Russia’s and China’s Arctic challenge.
Julian Lindley-French