This piece was originally published in Atlantic Council (Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security)
Introduction
The accession of Sweden and Finland as NATO’s newest members has fundamentally altered Russia’s security calculations in the Baltic and Nordic region. Should the war in Ukraine evolve into a prolonged frozen conflict, Russia is likely to rearm its military in pursuit of Vladimir Putin’s imperial ambitions. He will seek opportunities to rebuild Russian prestige, recover former or disputed territories, improve Russia’s strategic posture, and test NATO’s resolve in Article 5 scenarios in which he assesses that the likelihood of a robust Alliance response is low or the chances of success at acceptable cost are high. As one expert notes, “Russia wants to expand its military and political opportunities in the face of the West and considers a direct clash with the West highly probable, if not unavoidable.”¹
The potential rewards for continued and successful Russian aggression in Europe include enhanced prestige for Putin’s regime, an improved geostrategic position along Russia’s periphery, the delivery of a damaging—and perhaps fatal—blow to NATO, and the severing of the transatlantic link, all of which constitute powerful incentives. To deter future Russian aggression, NATO must identify and address these challenges now with concrete solutions. If Putin succeeds in such tests, the absence of an effective response could fracture NATO and fundamentally alter the transatlantic security environment.²
Despite its war in Ukraine, Russia remains a formidable, capable, and determined adversary in possession of the world’s largest and strongest nuclear arsenal. Western intelligence services have warned that the Russian military is reconstituting its forces in preparation for future contingencies.³ Senior NATO military and intelligence leaders regularly caution that Russian aggression against NATO territory in the near term represents a serious threat.⁴
This study assesses five key scenarios in which Russia might seek to improve its geostrategic position in the Nordic–Baltic region—the most likely target for future Russian aggression against NATO territory. In order of least to greatest risk for Russia, these scenarios are: the military occupation of Svalbard; the military occupation of the Åland Islands; the seizure of NATO territory in eastern Estonia; the seizure of Gotland; and military operations to establish a land corridor to Kaliningrad. The intent of this study is to develop specific, realistic, and practical recommendations to deter Russian aggression in the Nordic and Baltic region.
Read more below:
Photo credit: Simon Infanger on Unsplash