While the threat of a wider war grows, too many western countries are dithering or asleep
The complacent thinking in London and other western capitals goes like this: peace talks between Russia and Ukraine herald some kind of messy ceasefire and (we hope not too onerous) security arrangements. We are so bored with this war. Few lose sleep over their own security either. Donald Trump has not blown up Nato. We are sorting out our defences, or at least talking about it. Our stagnant economies, royal scandals, and political upheavals are so much more pressing.
So life goes on in Britain, France, Germany and Italy, and elswhere, though not for the millions killed, maimed and traumatised since 2022.
What should puncture the complacency is that the world is a far more dangerous place now.
The biggest loss is that the wishful thinking and platitudes that protected American credibility in Europe are gone. As a war-fighting alliance (its main job) NATO is hollow. Most European countries are not yet providing what they have repeatedly promised. The US states openly and often that it will not make up for these shortcomings. On a good day, in a set-piece confrontation with Russia, President Trump might fight to defend European allies. More likely scenarios involve bad days (perhaps with the US distracted by crises elsewhere) and a confusing, divisive tussle where the stakes become clear only in retrospect.
That battle of wills has already started. Russian use of the “grey zone” between peace and outright war has intensified, with a dizzying mixture of cyberattacks, sabotage, disruption, propaganda and other tricks. Much of this is carried out by proxies — hired thugs who have no idea who is paying them or for what reason. We are similarly clueless about how to stop them.
War has made militarism and xenophobia the state ideology. On Russian television the hatred oozes Nazi-style from the screen. China has thrown the Kremlin an economic lifeline. Umpteen packages of sanctions, always too little and too late, have not halted the war machine. By threatening to stop Russia but failing to do so we have shredded our credibility.
Against expectations, Russia has learnt fast on the battlefield. For all its casualties, it is increasingly formidable in cutting-edge capabilities: drones, missiles and electronic warfare. A British general observing an exercise last year in Estonia, where a handful of visiting Ukrainian drone operators effortlessly slaughtered two Nato battallions, observed, “Oh shit, we’re fucked.”
The most-discussed worry is that Russia beats Ukraine into rubble, then turns its attention to the main goal: Nato. More likely is that the war goes poorly for Russia and it lashes out against Ukraine’s western backers. General Sir Roly Walker, Britain’s top soldier, says NATO is on a “collision course” with a fast-rearming Russia, citing “large-scale combat operations” as a possibility as early as next year.
The victim is unlikely to be a vigilant, well-prepared neighbour, such as Finland, the Baltic states or Poland. An easier target is a sleepy country in the “old West”.
Is anyone listening? Britain and the other laggards have wasted the time Ukraine bought us. They are unprepared for war, psychologically, militarily and diplomatically. The UK in particular lacks reserves of people, equipment and ammunition. It has no serious homeland defence, particularly against missiles, bombs or long-range drones. It relies on allies for that.
But they have their own priorities. The longstanding, large and growing “say-do” gap between what the UK promises to Nato and what it delivers is arousing exasperation bordering on anger among European allies: particularly those, from Germany eastwards, that are rearming fast. These countries are also already preparing for a post-Nato world. For Britain that is still unimaginable.
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