A half-baked Russian psy-op against Estonia makes headlines thanks to gullible and alarmist allies
Fear, uncertainty and doubt are the weapons, perceptions are the battlefield, and well-meaning allies can hurt us. That is the story from Estonia, where an invented political movement has sparked fears of a Russian-backed insurrection: not locally, but in Ukrainian, German and other media outlets. The story started with a Telegram channel promoting a “Narva People’s Republic” autonomy movement in Estonia’s northeastern border city. The imagery and phrasing evoked similar stunts in the past. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania all had to deal with Kremlin-inspired separatist movements in the early 1990s. In Ukraine in 2014, pro-Moscow separatists, aided by unbadged Russian military units (“Little Green Men”) seized power in the eastern regions of Luhansk and Donetsk, and in Crimea.
A moment’s thought puts the latest stunt in perspective. Ukraine in 2014 was in chaos following the departure of the corrupt pro-Moscow president Viktor Yanukovych, who had gutted the country’s defence and security structures. Russian propaganda about “fascists” seizing power in Kyiv chimed with alienated segments of public opinion. Western countries were clueless about the threat.
None of that applies in Estonia, which is one of the best-run countries in Europe. It defends its constitution and its borders with vigilance and determination. So do its allies. Some Russian citizens living in Estonia, and indeed others, may have their grievances. But they do not want to be ruled by Putin.
If the parallel is flimsy, so too was the supposed campaign’s organisation (or lack of it). The disinformation debunkers Propastop reported that the Telegram channel concerned had only around 60–70 subscribers. A Postimees investigation found no leadership, funding or actual supporters. It reckoned that the group’s only active members were other journalists, or perhaps someone from the security services.
Yet the “story” made headlines all over Europe, not least in Bild, Germany’s biggest-selling newspaper, which bellowed “Is Putin Preparing an Attack on Estonia?” (Top tip based on my 50 years of reading this stuff: question-marks in a tabloid headline invite the answer “No”). Pundits and politicians on social media were eager to show their vigilance. The German foreign policy expert Nico Lange wrote “Watch out! This is not a drill…the playbook is known”.
A particularly annoying feature of this is that the Ukrainian media promoted the story heavily in their English-language outlets. It is easy to see why: if you want Europe to wake up and help Ukraine, you need them to think they may be next. But truth matters too, and so does the security of the Baltic states, Ukraine’s most fervent and loyal allies. Depicting them as helpless victims of imminent aggression is not helpful.
In a punchy commentary, the Estonian defence guru Meelis Oidsalu highlighted the “amplification paradox”. The defensive act of exposing a hostile narrative, he wrote, can give it “reach, visibility, and symbolic weight”. In this case, a flimsy Russian ruse succeeded because it triggered “a large, anxious, self-reinforcing response”.
A further twist is to exploit the furore. Official Kremlin media mocked Estonia for (supposedly) being frightened, while also implying that there was no smoke without fire: it shows something must be amiss with Estonia’s treatment of its “Russian minority”.
Was this all a fiendish Kremlin plot? Probably not: Estonia’s spy chief Kaupo Rosin doubts it. More likely is that the “Narva” campaign was a low-level stunt, done with minimal resources and planning, opportunistically attempting to exploit the transatlantic tensions over the Gulf war. Most of the work – and the damage — was done by Estonia’s friends. Having downplayed the danger from Russia in past years, they are now overstating the risk. That can be a menace too.
Edward Lucas is a British writer, journalist, and security specialist.