You wouldn’t blame Volodymyr Zelenskyy for feeling mildly fatigued as he stood opposite Andy Burnham aboard HMS Queen Elizabeth in Portsmouth Naval Base on Monday 27th July. This is now the UK’s fifth prime minister since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Since Boris Johnson’s swashbuckling stroll around the streets of Kyiv in the early days of the conflict, successive prime ministers have visited the war-torn Eastern European country and pledged their support for Zelenskyy and his government as they confront their Russian occupiers.
Ukrainian leadership has not been without its instabilities or controversies, but it is hard to ignore a feeling of irony when the UK staggers from one political crisis to another as its war-afflicted ally tries to keep pace with the rate of leadership change, hoping to maintain its place in the list of priorities at No.10 and in the foreign policy imagination of Whitehall.
The Burnham premiership coincides with a period in the war in Ukraine in which it currently holds the operational and technological initiative, shifting the momentum away from Russia despite Moscow still occupying roughly 20% of its territory. So far, Burnham’s messaging on Ukraine has been largely in line with his predecessors. Burnham used President Volodymyr Zelensky’s first visit to Britain since he took office to reaffirm the UK’s unwavering support for Ukraine, declaring that “Britain stands with Ukraine, shoulder to shoulder, and our support remains unwavering.” He went one step further than rhetoric by announcing the sharing of the UK’s Stone Cloak electronic warfare technology to boost Ukraine’s drone capabilities. The sharing of the UK’s intellectual property (IP) rights over Stone Cloak further integrates the defence capabilities of the two nations and continues to entrench what has become a strategically vital defence partnership between London and Kyiv.
Gaining the technological upper hand is important for Ukraine and Burnham has demonstrated savvy political instincts by ensuring that his transition into power is not seen as a departure from precedent when it comes to supporting Ukraine. However, his premiership will be judged by his commitments to spending and willingness to re-arm – these are the difficult choices that impact the UK’s security and that of its allies in the coming months and years.
Burnham’s choice of Chancellor, the former Defence Secretary John Healey, has instilled optimism amongst those in the defence sector that his government will take defence spending and national security seriously. Healey previously resigned under Keir Starmer’s government over his inability to commit to spending 3% of GDP on defence by 2030.
Politics, however, has a way of provoking double takes. A mere two days after Zelenskyy’s visit, when asked by a reporter from The Telegraph at a Jewish Care centre in north London to back the 2030 target, Burnham deflected and instead committed to the 2035 NATO target. “When it comes to defence obviously those commitments relate to the Parliament after this one in terms of our NATO commitments,” he said, subsequently stating “I have been very clear that we will honour those commitments.” The ambitious Wes Streeting, once seen as a potential future prime minister, has taken up the role of Defence Secretary and promised to resign if Mr Burnham did not find an extra £4.7bn for defence in his first Budget later this year, arguing “it is absolutely … a matter of principle”.
So it begins.
Burnham is encountering the same problem as his predecessors: how to manage requests for increased spending from nearly all government departments with a pot of money that is not growing. Being a better communicator than Starmer does not change the material reality he faces; one in which Britain spends more per year servicing the interest on its debt than on its defence capabilities. As impatience grows in the defence community and the flaws of the Defence Investment Plan continue to be scrutinised, maintaining Britain’s leadership role in supporting Ukraine will depend not on symbolic gestures or carefully crafted messaging, but on whether the government is willing to make difficult fiscal and political choices to sustain defence spending in an era of mounting domestic pressures.
For now, Burnham has bought himself goodwill abroad. Whether he can translate that into a credible long-term security strategy at home is the question that will define his premiership.
Jude Petrie, BA (Cantab) is the Executive Assistant to the Chairman of The Alphen Group, Professor Dr. Julian Lindley-French
Photo credit: Marcin Nowak on Unsplash