“Trump is not bluffing”.
The fear of President Trump’s willful unpredictability ran through the debate. American presidents always make much of their first (or even second) 100 days in office. President Trump has also given a sense of power in haste by promising to sign a host of Executive Orders on Day One. What can allies and adversaries expect and “how to mitigate Trump” were the two most pertinent questions.
NATO: One senior American said Trump really does want out of NATO and does not see expelling Russia from Ukraine as achievable. Another pointed to the firing of pro-NATO Representative Mike Turner as Chair of the House Intelligence Committee as “very concerning”. It was hoped that NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte’s political skill and constructive relationship with Trump would help smooth matters in the run-up to the June 2025 summit in The Hague.
Europe: There was still “grave foreboding” because of Europe’s limited influence on Trump and suggested the focus should rather be on influencing incoming Secretary-of-State Marco Rubio. Trump was a ‘narcissist’ who loves success and power and if allies wish to influence him they need to show both commitment and resolve in Ukraine and a willingness to ease American burdens for the defence of Europe. Given Trump’s mantra of Making America Great Again, Europeans need to make Europe act again because Putin will seek to exploit all and ever division within the Alliance by continued hybrid warfare. The lack of European “political will is the main problem”, a weakness Trump will despise. Is Europe up to the challenge posed by Trump? No.
Middle East: Trump will likely focus on Israel which has won the latest war within a war. This puts NATO ally Turkey in a sensitive position with the prospect of an Abraham 2 Accord between Israel and Saudi Arabia concerning Ankara due to its anti-Iran focus. Turkey is not concerned about Russia but does have concerns about any demarche in Syria and elsewhere that might strengthen the PKK.
China: Unpredictability is most apparent over China. Would Trump fight for Taiwan? What are the implications for Sino-European relations? Untested Chinese military power projection has been greatly exaggerated which would make any Chinese attack on Taiwan extremely difficult especially if the US Navy was involved, but it cannot be ruled out. Trump is also unlikely to forget China’s “technological aggression” against the US. What would Trump actually do?
Conversely, if Trump imposed tariffs on European goods and services whilst seeking a mercantilist truce with the Chinese, what impact might that have on both Sino-EU and EU-US relationships. Or, if Sino-US relations deteriorate significantly and Trump seeks to contain or restrain Chinese ambitions, what position and role would Europeans take if any? For example, Germany’s long-standing faith in the US is already shaken. Trump, like Xi, Putin and others sees power as the ultimate arbiter of order. Too many Europeans see soft power as real power in which covenants without the sword are deemed sufficient. Until and if that changes, and to paraphrase George Bernard Shaw, Trump and Europe are likely to be allies separated by two very different languages: whilst one speaks lawless power, the other speaks powerless law.
Julian Lindley-French
Photo Credit: Photo courtesy of https://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/