“There is a fundamental shift underway in US policy”.
What is happening marks the end of Ukraine and the post-war Western security order as we know it and is a structural shift in the use of American power away from the rules-based order. The Trumpian future is one of Great Power Realpolitik based on hard Trump (American?) interests, narrow transactionalism, “spheres of influence and Yalta” revisited. For their own security and defence (souls?) Europeans must respond radically to President Trump’s “revolutionary” refocusing of American foreign, security and defence policy. That was the essential message from a sobering TAG expert debate.
Unfortunately, be it in response to Russia’s war on Ukraine or its own security and defence “Europe is in a mess” with the European Westphalian order being “blasted to Hell!” Trump is also determined to make Ukraine Europe’s responsibility with the support Kyiv will need “vast”. There is no-one around Trump who understands Russia. Trump thinks that by destroying the old order he can radically reshape geopolitics, and separate China and Russia. To that end, Trump is “realigning US relations with Russia” at Ukraine’s and wider Europe’s expense. Much of the Trumpian rhetoric is aimed at Germany with which the US had hoped to build a ‘special relationship’ but Berlin refuses to step up to its security responsibilities. Trump also “does trust Putin and believes his treasonous interests are best served by supporting him”.
The US is also “in a Cold Civil War”. Europeans must thus realise they are being dragged into a “crisis in American democracy” in what is “effectively a seizure of control by an “immensely wealthy US group fundamentally opposed to the existing Western order”. Old ideas of the US national interest are being abandoned as they seek to change America itself with even the US Constitution under assault.
The “beginning of wisdom” in Europe would be to recognise this shift. First, the rupture in transatlantic relations is “not a done deal” and Europeans must endeavour to convince Trump to “back away from the abyss”. They will only do that if they learn to ‘speak Trump’ and understand his determination not to be dragged into major foreign wars by what he sees as fights over renegade provinces (Donbas, Crimea and Taiwan). He is also “revising support for Taiwanese independence”.
Sadly, there is a lack of leadership in Europe with few of the current crop of European ‘leaders’ having the strategic understanding or political will to affect a profound shift in their respective policies. Worse, European leaders are in denial. In 2007 Putin said what he was going to do and did it. In Project 2025 Trump laid out his plan and is doing it!
“Nor can Europeans absolve themselves from this mess”. For too long they have relied on the US for their defence to such an extent they have become subject to the vicissitudes of American domestic politics. The options Europeans face are thus stark: either “satisfy Trump or build a new Europe” and a new defence at great cost. Or, just live with increased risk.
A great crisis in transatlantic relations could come far more quickly than European leaders believe if Trump and Putin agree a deal for Ukraine that neither Europeans nor Ukrainians can accept. Europeans must now as a matter of urgency rebuild European defence not least because Trump will shift US grand strategy decisively to the Indo-Pacific because he thinks that is where the money is.
Ukraine? It seems Thucydides was right – “the strong do as they do and the weak do as they must”.
Julian Lindley-French