I’ve been thinking about that line by Lenin: that for decades nothing happens then decades occur in a week. Events are moving fast just at the moment in this crazy new world kickstarted by the beginning of Trump Mk 2, and no sooner do I write something than I feel myself heading down another rabbit hole of unanswered questions. But let me begin by saying something to give ourselves a bit of heart: that history tells us that when democracies pull together they always win against autocracies.
History provides patterns and it provides context and that’s why studying it is so very important. There’s no question that Europe finds itself in a bit of a hole at the moment. In fact, the warnings from the USA long preceded Trump; President Obama signalled the shift to the Indo-Pacific during his administration, but this has been a time of political upheaval and Europe, riven by the 2008 financial crisis, by Brexit, and, of course, the pandemic, plus a decade of uninspiring political leadership and, frankly, complacency, has been slow to react to the shifting sands. Most can agree – in principle, at any rate – that Trump has a point when he says that Europe needs to stop being so dependent on the US. It has to be also borne in mind, however, that up until the end of the Cold War, America wanted to be the dominant military partner in Europe so it’s not as though it’s been one-way traffic since 1945. But that was then and this is now. It’s time for Europe to wake up. I’ve been saying repeatedly for the past fifteen years that Britain, for one, needs to dramatically rearm. We had time on our side then. Now we don’t.
So, a rise to 2.5% of GDP here in the UK is hardly worth getting excited about, and frankly, doesn’t really add up to a hill of beans once you’ve taken out pensions and the cost of the nuclear deterrent, and not when procurement over here is as cumbersome and inefficient as it is. It’s worth reminding people that back in 1950, the Attlee Labour government ran defence at 10% and was urging a rise to 14%. And this after a long, financially crippling war. In any case, 2.5% is largely meaningless. Rather, we need to consider what is needed, now, work out how much it might cost to get the ball rolling, and then work backwards.
So, there are three things to think about. First, is that in 1939, the Western Democracies were playing catch-up. The United States Army was the nineteenth largest in the world, at just 189,000 strong, sandwiched between Uruguay and Portugal. In its Air Corps – it wasn’t big enough to be an air force at that stage – there were just 74 fighter planes in its arsenal. Meaningful rearmament in the USA did not begin until the summer of 1940, the same time that Britain decided to dramatically increase the size of its own army, following the fall of France. Yet, a little over two years later, DUKE forces – dominions, UK and empire – were emphatically defeating an Axis army in Egypt and at the same time, with their American coalition partners, landing the largest amphibious operation the world had ever seen up to that point. Operation TORCH, the Anglo-US landings in North Africa in November 1942, involved bringing an entire army and three separate invasion forces 3,000 and 1,000 miles across oceans. By the time the war in North Africa was won in May 1943, there were two Allied armies operating side by side and some 3,500 aircraft, not to mention a Mediterranean bristling with Allied warships.
That July,1943, saw the invasion of Europe when the Allies landed in Sicily, and in June 1944, there was D-Day: the cross-Channel assault of Nazi-occupied France, which involved a fleet of 6,939 vessels – imagine that! – including 1,213 warships and 4,127 assault craft. There were simply no assault craft at all until 1940 and the famous Higgins boat was only first trialled in 1941. By 1 July 1944, a million Allied troops had been landed in Normandy. A million. From Britain and America’s position in the summer of 1940, this represented an astonishing turn-around. Canada, who provided the third main component at D-Day, had also grown its armed forces exponentially, especially considering was a nation of only 10.4 million. The Canadians contributed significantly in terms of air, land and naval operations and from even more of standing start than the USA or Britain.
In fact, D-Day, especially, showed coalition warfare at its finest and proved what can be achieved when democracies pull together – despite cultural and political differences and aims – for a united cause, which in this case was to smash Nazism.
So, a quick turn-around can be done. The second, and obvious point is that this does require vision, leadership and decisiveness, which was provided most obviously by Roosevelt and Churchill. This has been sorely lacking in Europe and yet there are signs of this just starting to appear. Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron appear to singing from the same hymn sheet and Friedrich Merz and the German defence minister, Boris Pistorius, saying the right things as far as defence is concerned. In Poland, prime minister Donald Tusk is also leading the march for European rearmament.
And this leads to the third point, and again, it’s an obvious one: that the United States grew very wealthy by becoming the Arsenal of Democracy and that Poland, today, is experience dramatic economic growth on the back of significantly increased defence spending. Here in the UK, the government needs to think a little bit more positively and stop talking about the coffers being bare. Rearmament can be used to boost economic growth, something desperately needed not just here in the UK, but also in France and especially Germany. It is, after all, eighty years since the end of the Second World War. The time has come for Germany to meaningfully rearm once more.
Yes, this would mean adjusting the debt level here in the UK, for example, but that is something that is accepted in a time of crisis and urgency – and we are in the midst of one now. Labur would have to go back on an election pledge but the world has shifted significantly since July 2024. However, the consequent economic growth could soon right that. For example, the British government might pay, let’s say, £250 million for twenty-five new medium helicopters to be built by Leonardo here in the UK. Then other countries would add to that figure – the Saudis might buy some, so might France, Germany and other European countries. What began as an order for 25, soon becomes an order for 150. That’s worth £1.5 billion. The government takes 25% corporation tax, which means taking £375 million is £125 million above its original investment. Additionally, they will also take income tax from the workers employed on this project.
Start adding in ship building, artillery pieces, gargantuan numbers of drones, new home defence systems, dramatically increased ammunition supply, and bingo, the coffers begin to look altogether more healthy. These industries could also spring up in areas of traditional defence construction – Teesside and Tyneside, the Clyde, South Wales, Merseyside – all areas that are crying out for levelling-up opportunities. It’s easy to see how not only the British economy but also British society could be injected with a massive boost. By creating a sense of urgency, of focus, and of worth, Britain’s unemployed and out of employment could get back on their feet again. A highly realistic consequence is that Britain grows economically, and becomes safer with the chance of World War 3 receding as a result. What’s not to like?
A similar pattern could swiftly get underway in France and Germany. We do not need a combined European Army to have a collaborative European defence industry. Scrap the F-35 orders from the US and build more Typhoons and Dassault Rafales, for example. Consider bringing Tornados and Harriers back in to service – they still have a job they can perform. The USA is happy to scrap deals in a heartbeat. Europe should do the same. We don’t need the very best in the world – we just need considerably larger numbers of very good equipment – equipment that is already there. As Ukraine has shown, numbers count. Nor do we need Challenger 3s in ten years’ time. We need more perfectly adequate Challenger 2s right now. This would mean pooling resources and working collaboratively, just as Britain’s many defence industries did back during World War 2. This can be done while still boosting national growth and national armaments industries. There are also many SMEs ready to upscale should they need to – all big manufacturers need smaller ones too, just as Ford and General Motors and Boeing did back during the war. Big, medium and smaller enterprises can grow and thrive in this drive to rearm. Europe’s governments should not be afraid to push back on the United States and President Trump. After all, the EU is the world’s third largest economy and has more than double the population of the US. In fact, it would be good for the balance of current world power for Europe to show both independence from America and a bit of muscle too. We should not allow ourselves to be bullied by anyone, and least of all by Trump and Elon Musk. This in turn, would dramatically improve our global standing. It would also provide a warning shot to Putin and other potential enemies. Prestige and self-belief should never be under-valued. Right now, European prestige is low. Let’s change that.
All this can be done, but it does need some heads to be knocked together and a major change of mindset by those making the decisions. The MOD in Britain, for example, needs to streamline its procurement. We do not need to put contracts out to tender – we need to work out what we want, find a company that can achieve the requirements, then sign the deal, all at breakneck speed. We did it during Covid, we can do it again now. It also doesn’t need top spec – that’s a peacetime luxury and while we’re still at peace now, we need to rearm with urgency to ensure we deter our enemies and stay that way. We do not need the absolute best of everything – not if it gets in the way of rapid production. Ukraine has showed us the importance of this, just as the Second World War did too. The Sherman tank, for example, was all-round very good and there were six times more of them than the single most produced German tank of the war, and thirty-six times more of them than the best known German tank of them all, the Tiger. The Tiger and Panther had thicker armour and bigger guns but they were also more complicated and expensive to produce and did not provide what they were intended to achieve. Changing the British MOD’s mindset from wanting the best to having the more-than-adequate will be hard for it to get its head around but it must.
Employment regulations also need to be lessened; people who are no good at their jobs should be fired without recourse to time-consuming litigation that ultimately benefits only lawyers. Risk aversion needs to be kicked into the long grass and people made accountable without the fear of yet more litigation at the slightest error of judgement. In other words, cut red tape, cut quangos and get an urgent move on. This is not a time for faffing and prevarication but the moment for decisive action. It doesn’t mean creating a new DOGE here in UK and France – it just needs a sensible and entirely achievable reset.
The big difference from the years of the Second World War, of course, is that then the USA was at the heart of European defence, but it is not going to be for much longer. On the other hand, back in 1940-1944, most of Europe was under the Nazi yoke. Now, most of Europe is tied together in the EU, and even those outside the EU, such as Britain, are military allies. Its economies are alos far stronger than that of Russia. There is the workforce in Europe, the talent and the skills, and also the purchasing power. There is no reason Europe cannot thank the United States sincerely for the long years of peace its support has provided but now take on the mantle of defence itself. This will deter Putin from further expansionist plans and send a very strong signal to those other potential enemies around the world. It will, in short, provide peace in our time.
Photo Credit: Christian Lue on Unsplash